Muse.On-The.Net

Some changes happen rapidly while others flow and ebb with glacial speed. As we enter 2008, one of the standard predictions is that this year is the demise of carrier portal domination and the rise of off-carrier deck sites and free choice. It would sound promising, except that this claim has been raised for each of the last 5 years.

Certainly, you can find games off-portal. Over 1.25 million free mobile phone games are downloaded each month from MobileRated, a leading off-carrier deck mobile entertainment site. Other companies are moderately successful selling games directly, but their revenues are dwarfed by that obtained on the carrier decks. The reasons remain the same too.

“Over the air pay-per-download from operators will remain the prevalent model,” says Tim Harrison of EA Mobile.

“Carrier portals will remain the main source of acquisition as they are the entry door of users to the mobile internet,” says Gameloft’s Gonzague de Vallois.

For the carrier deck to diminish, a semblance of a level playing field must exist. In essence, it should be as easy to find content off-deck as on-deck. Once found, it should be as easy to pay for, download, and install it. Most carriers impose barriers, limit choices, or discourage such enterprise.

Long term, broader acceptance of digital commerce and ubiquitious mobile content is in the best interests of the carriers - as well as consumers and merchants. However, short term interests create strong inertia to change. While we hope for a breakthrough year, we expect modest but continued gains. 2009 predictions, anyone?